Never as in these days are the words of Wiston Churchill so enlightening, “Never waste a good crisis”!

They are a great stimulus at a time when you risk being crushed by uncertainty.

The bigger the crisis, the more incisive the actions to be taken must be.

But how can such a devastating crisis be transformed into an opportunity right now that we are gripped by restrictive measures and economic and financial difficulties, troubled by fears for the near future and bombarded with information, conflicting theories and fake news?

First of all, we can focus on being Italian because “Intuition, flexibility and speed of analysis and action will be key elements in minimizing negative impacts and taking advantage of the opportunities that will open up. These are qualities for which Italy, in terms of culture and structure, excels “.

Secondly, I am convinced that only by clearing the mind of the confusion and waiting state, it will be easier to identify the steps to take to start again.

The Italian Government and Parliament are in action to identify suitable measures to restart the economy and the entrepreneurial fabric, but in teamwork, even companies will have to react and bring out all the aforementioned skills, with clarity and without fear.

I will try to clarify through a series of synthetic articles with analysis and useful ideas for reflecting on the topic.

Today I will make a synthetic summary of the current scenario and of the actions, which should be implemented by the Government and Parliament to create the essential conditions for a correct restart.

THE VIRUS

The socio-economic scenario

So far, of this Covid19 virus we have understood that:

It is classified as moderately aggressive towards humans from a health point of view;

It has a strong impact on economies, especially if they are already in difficulty;

It strikes more aggressively where there is a low perception of pandemic risk management with consequent underestimation of public and private investments in the health system and in relevant national production activities;

Create new phenomena of social panic;

It puts all economic sectors in crisis, first of all those with a strong behavioral and emotional impact such as tourism, catering, entertainment, fashion and passenger transport, secondly the manufacturing companies that risk breaking the value chain.

Italian economic situation pre-Covid19

The pre-Covid19 Italian situation already had its difficulties due to:

Poor growth,

Poor productivity,

Significant debt,

Low competitiveness,

High tax burden,

and the forecasts were for a growth of the Italian GDP in 2020 contained in a range between 0.2% and 0.6%.

Pre-existing Risk Management

During the whole of 2019 in the world and particularly in Europe at the center of the Risk Agenda as underlined by the World Economic Forum, there was the debate on the risks connected to “climate change” and sustainability issues. But in the Smart indicator (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, Time-related) we also find the health risks associated with the inadequacy of the health system and the risk of new pandemics.

Economic scenario of global slowdown

The lockdown has already had a strong impact on sectors with direct impact and could also have destructive effects on small manufacturing companies connected to the supply chains of the aforementioned sectors as well as a strong impact on almost all the others.

We are approaching a Phase 2 scenario of  Global Slowdown  induced by the new measures such as those just launched by the Lombardy Region of ” compliance with the Four Ds :  Distance  (one meter of safety between people),  Devices  (mask obligation for everyone) ,  Digitization  (obligation of smart working for the activities that provide for this possibility) and  Diagnosis (serological tests will begin on April 21) “which will require a major change in the daily habits of the population, workers, consumers, and businesses that will have to radically reorganize.

Opportunity

But is it possible to change the Italian future scenario from extremely negative to very positive? The answer in my opinion is yes. Provided that you see it as an opportunity and treat it, compactly, as such.

Below is a table that summarizes the main actions needed mainly on the public front (Government and Parliament):

After the perhaps health task linked to phase 1 of the emergency, the Government established that of the restart of phase 2, led by Vittorio Colao. In the table the names and their competences.

An opportunity to transform Italy into a more modern and competitive country, adapting – thanks to the help of technology – infrastructures and processes to the challenges of a world that will most likely no longer be what it was before.

I take up, make mine and propose again what Prof. Carlo Cottarelli writes:

Congratulations to the #TaskForce led by Colao. For the restart, public and private investments will be needed. Quickly. This is why a drastic cut in bureaucracy is a priority. If you agree, please retweet so the message will come loud and clear. Thanks.

Fulvio Mastrangelo